Thursday, 10 July 2014

Germany beats Brazil, Cortana beats Paul the Octopus

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Yesterday's match between Germany and Brazil ended in record books of Germany and as well as on FIFA records. The historic Germany-Brazil match will not just go down in the history books for Germany’s score but also for Bing and Contana’s, who have now racked up 13 (Better make it 14 now) correct predictions.

A blog post written by the Bing team last month explains how Cortana predicts each game.

For the tournament, our models evaluate the strength of each team through a variety of factors such as previous win/loss/tie record in qualification matches and other international competitions and margin of victory in these contests, adjusted for location since home field advantage is a known bias.
Cortana has now taken down Paul the Octopus, the star of 2010 FIFA World Cup by giving 13 correct predictions (Better make it 14 after Argentina's win over the Netherlands).

In the same blog post Microsoft wrote:

Further adjustments are made related to other factors which give one team advantages over another, such as home field (for Brazil) or proximity (South American teams), playing surface (hybrid grass), game-time weather conditions, and other such factors. In addition, data obtained from prediction markets allows us to tune the win/lose/tie probabilities due to the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ phenomenon captured by the people wagering on the outcomes.
Cortana has maintained its performance by going with 14-0 and is currently predicting that Germany is going to be the winner of FIFA World Cup 2014. So cheers to our German readers and sorry to Argentina's fans as it is going to be the runners up this year.
Whatever happens in the finals, but we are sure that Microsoft has made a great prediction system which is unbeaten till now. It will be interesting to see if Microsoft does this with other games also or this system will be exclusive to Football only.
While the Cup is exciting all by itself, I suspect Cortana and Bing will be one of the big winners of the tournament. Do our readers agree?


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